Perceived life expectancy, environmental unpredictability, and behavior in high-risk youth

Abstract

According to evolutionary models of human development, environmental unpredictability induces expectations in youth that their future is uncertain, and these expectations set youth on trajectories toward opportunistic and socially deviant behaviors. Using longitudinal data from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the present study tested this proposition, evaluating whether greater environmental unpredictability forecast youths' (N = 1768 youth ages 8–16 years; 55% female) lower perceived life expectancy, and whether these expectations in turn predicted greater subsequent antisocial behavior and lower social competence. Higher levels of exposure to environmental unpredictability at baseline were predictive of greater subsequent antisocial behavior and lower social competence. Moreover, as theorized, lower perceived life expectancy mediated the associations between environmental unpredictability and subsequent behavior. Findings have implications for understanding developmental antecedents of socially undesirable patterns of behavior and targeting prevention and intervention efforts.