Perceived Election (Un)fairness and Support for Electoral Protest: Reactions to the Russian State Duma Election in 2011

Abstract

Recent research focuses on electoral authoritarian regimes, which use limited political competition and manipulated elections to enhance legitimacy and maintain incumbent rule. But to what extent and under what conditions do unfair elections enhance or erode support for regime? More specifically, when do unfair elections increase support for electoral protest? To address these questions, I use evidence from the New Russia Barometer nationwide survey, conducted shortly after the 2011 State Duma election that triggered electoral protests. This evidence is complemented by surveys of Muscovites and Moscow protesters. I test the effects of several conditions on support for electoral protest: direct experience of procedural unfairness, perceived decisiveness of procedural violations for election outcomes (substantive unfairness), knowledge of the election observers’ critical assessments, and voting for winners or losers. I conclude with a discussion of implications of perceived election unfairness for protest attitudes. NOTE: Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Midwest Political Science Association annual convention, April 11th-14th, 2013, Chicago, IL and at the pre-APSA Workshop on Electoral Integrity, August 28th, 2013, Chicago, IL.