Perceived Economic Competency and the Ford/Carter Election

Abstract

IN A recent symposium on 1972 presidential election it was forcefully argued that analysts from Center for Political Studies paid insufficient attention to economic variables. Asking how voters evaluate economic performance of political actors, critics (Popkin et al., 1976:804-05) concluded that the entire economic area has, as our treatment suggests, been heavily underplayed, and future voting research would be well advised to study popular perceptions and evaluations of various different kinds of economic conditions. How well critics illustrated effect of economic variables is questionable (Miller and Miller, 1976:848), but even CPS response agrees that questions of perceived candidate competence are important, especially if direct attention to new concepts or if they produce new generalizations. Research which analyzes political impact of economic factors on individuals is limited. Several authors have studied association between one's personal economic expectations and presidential vote (Campbell et al., 1960:381-401; Fiorina, 1978; Wides, 1976; Klorman, 1978; Tufte, 1978) and have shown that optimists are more likely to support incumbent administration than pessimists. The findings hold independent of partisanship, but in no case are they particularly