Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh

Abstract

Disaster risk perception and risk appraisal are essential in formulating an appropriate disaster risk reduction policy. This study examines the actual vs perceived drought risks by constructing risk indices at the household and expert levels using survey data from the lower Teesta River Basin in northern Bangladesh. The survey data were collected from 450 farmers using a structured questionnaire conducted between August and September 2019. A composite drought risk index was developed to understand households’ perceived and actual risks in the designated areas. The results show that the actual and perceived risk values differ significantly among the three case study sites locally known as Ganai, Ismail, and Par Sekh Sundar. The risk levels also differ significantly across the households’ gender, income, occupation, and educational attainment. People with insolvent socioeconomic status are more prone to drought risk compared to others. Results also reveal that the mean level of perceived risk agrees well with the actual risk, whereas females perceive comparatively higher risk than their male counterparts. Expert views on drought risk are similar to the individual household level perceived risk. The outcomes of this study would assist the policymakers and disaster managers to understand the concrete risk scenarios and take timely disaster risk reduction actions for ensuring a drought-resistant society.