Abstract
Rice is one of the staple foodstuffs whose availability is very important for public consumption in Indonesia, especially Bali Province. The three regencies that produce the most rice in Bali they are Badung, Gianyar and Tabanan. This study aims to model, predict, and analyze the relationship between rice production in Badung, Gianyar, and Tabanan Regency from January 2018 to December 2019 using vector autoregression (VAR) method. VAR method is a time series method that can be used to model and predict time series with more than one variable simultaneously. The results of this study, namely the VAR model obtained to predict the amount of rice production in Badung, Gianyar, and Tabanan Regencies is third order VAR (VAR (3)). Based on the forecasting criteria for the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in this model, a reasonable forecast is obtained for the rice production variables in Badung and Gianyar regencies, and good forecasting for the rice production variables in Tabanan Regency is obtained. Then, based on the granger causality analysis, it is found that the amount of rice production in Gianyar Regency affects the amount of rice production in Badung and Tabanan Regencies, and the amount of rice production in Badung Regency affects the amount of rice production in Gianyar Regency.
Highlights
Rice is one of the staple foodstuffs whose availability is very important for public consumption in Indonesia, especially Bali Province
This study aims to model, predict, and analyze the relationship between rice production in Badung, Gianyar, and Tabanan Regency from January 2018 to December 2019 using vector autoregression (VAR) method
Pengaruh Serangan Hama Penggerek Batang dan Penyakit Tungro Terhadap Produktivitas Sembilan Varietas Padi di Lokapaksa Bali
Summary
Peramalan adalah seni dan ilmu untuk memprediksi kejadian pada masa depan dengan melibatkan pengambilan data historis dan memproyeksikannya ke masa mendatang dengan model pendekatan matematis (Heizer et al, 2011). Model VAR merupakan model deret waktu yang dapat digunakan untuk memodelkan dan meramalkan deret waktu dengan lebih dari satu variabel secara simultan. Model VAR pada penelitian tersebut digunakan untuk memodelkan variabel dari sektor ekonomi. Model VAR juga dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan data kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara, penjualan sepeda motor, dan produksi padi. Widana Peramalan Produksi Padi di Kabupaten Badung, Gianyar, dan Tabanan. Jumlah produksi padi di Kabupaten Badung, Gianyar, dan Tabanan berbeda-beda karena terdapat beberapa faktor yang memengaruhi diantaranya adalah luas lahan, modal, dan tenaga kerja. Kenyataan yang terjadi dari tahun ke tahun di Kabupaten Badung, Gianyar, dan Tabanan terjadinya penurunan jumlah produksi padi. Berdasarkan uraian di atas, maka penulis tertarik melakukan penelitian memodelkan, meramalkan, dan menganalisis hubungan produksi padi Kabupaten Badung, Gianyar, dan Tabanan dengan menggunakan metode VAR
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