Peramalan Produksi Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) di PT. XYZ

Mohammad Buchori,Tedjo Sukmono

doi:10.21070/prozima.v2i1.1290

Abstract

In production planning and control the first step is to forecast to determine how much production, the company forecasting is still not optimal, because forecasting has an important role in a company. PT. XYZ is a food company that produces chicken meatballs and chicken dumplings. So from that this study uses the forecasting method Autoregressive Integreted Moving Average (ARIMA). ARIMA is often also called the Box-Jenkins time series method. ARIMA is very good for short-term forecasting, while for long-term forecasting the forecasting accuracy is not good. The purpose of this research is to get a good ARIMA model, used to forecast production in the company. So that the production becomes optimal and not excessive which can cause waste of raw materials, which will make production costs a lot. Data processing is done with the help of an Eviews computer program to determine a good ARIMA model, from processing data obtained by ARIMA (1.0,0). With the results obtained forecasting in the period 37 to period 48.

Highlights

In production planning and control the first step is to forecast to determine how much production, the company forecasting is still not optimal, because forecasting has an important role in a company
Autoregressive Integreted Moving Average (ARIMA) is very good for short-term forecasting, while for long-term forecasting the forecasting accuracy is not good
Data processing is done with the help of the Eviews computer program to determine a good ARIMA model, from processing data obtained by ARIMA (1.0,0)

Summary

Introduction

In production planning and control the first step is to forecast to determine how much production, the company forecasting is still not optimal, because forecasting has an important role in a company. Dalam hal ini perlu diadakan forecast yang bisa meminimumkan kesalahan meramal (forecast error), Dari beberapa suatu peramalan (forecasting) adalah suatu usaha yang digunanakan untuk meramalkan keadaan dimasa mendatang dengan menggunakan acuan data-data dimasa lalu.. Dari adanya masalah tersebut maka dilakukan penelitian dengan menggunakan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) menggunakan nilai masa lalu dan sekarang dari variabel dependen untuk menghasilkan model peramalan jangka pendek yang akurat.

Objectives

Results

Conclusion