Abstract
Bali province is a tourist destination island with good transportation. Airplane is the most used transportation to go to Bali. Convenience of the airline passengers are the most important thing for I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport Authorithy. An exact forecast method is needed to predict the numbers of passenger in the future. There are two types of forecasting methods; triple exponential smoothing and Fuzzy Time Series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur, however based on the research Fuzzy Time Series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur is better than triple exponential smoothing due to a small error MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 2,4% and plot is close to actual data.
Highlights
Bali province is a tourist destination island with good transportation
most used transportation to go to Bali
An exact forecast method is needed to predict the numbers of passenger in the future
Summary
Provinsi Bali merupakan wilayah kepulauan yang menjadi tujuan destinasi wisata dengan sarana transportasi yang baik. Salah satu hal yang vital bagi Otoritas Bandara I Gusti Ngurah Rai adalah memperhatikan kenyamanan pengguna transportasi udara, maka dibutuhkan suatu metode peramalan yang diharapkan mampu meramalkan jumlah penumpang pesawat dikemudian waktu atau masa yang akan datang dengan akurasi peramalan yang baik. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu triple exponential smoothing dan fuzzy time series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur. Metode triple exponential smoothing digunakan untuk meramalkan jumlah penumpang pesawat di Bandara Internasional Adisutjipto memperoleh tingkat akurasi yang baik dengan error MSD yang kecil 82222422 (Munawaroh, 2010). Sumarjaya Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Pesawat Bandara I Gusti Ngurah Rai. Metode kedua yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode fuzzy time series Ruey-Chyn Tsaur yaitu salah satu metode yang sering digunakan untuk meramal pada f uzzy time series.
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