People with jumping to conclusions bias tend to make context-independent decisions rather than context-dependent decisions

Abstract

Beads task (BT) uses a probabilistic reasoning paradigm and reveals jumping to conclusions (JTC) bias, the tendency to make premature judgments based on insufficient information (i.e., making fewer draws to decision-DTD). In this study, healthy participants (N = 207) were tested on the 80:20 and 60:40 color ratio versions of BT. We investigated associations of JTC bias with a set of cognitive bias problems and Cognitive Bias Task (CBT), a non-veridical (agent-centered) decision-making task that determines context-dependent and context-independent decision-making bias.Results showed that the converted CBT scores were negatively, and cognitive bias scores were positively correlated with JTC bias (DTD ≤ 2) on both versions of the BT. The CBT demonstrated to have satisfactory convergent and predictive validity for JTC bias. The findings suggest that people with JTC bias fail to solve cognitive bias problems and are more likely to make context-independent response selections than context-dependent response selections.