Pension arrangements and economic thinking: unreal assumptions and false predictions in the case of Argentina

Abstract

In accordance with mainstream economic thinking, the World Bank advised Latin American countries to reform and fully or partially privatize their pension systems. Argentina was one of the countries to follow these recommendations, which it did without first checking whether the arguments were valid or whether the theoretical assumptions were fulfilled. On the basis of publicly available statistical information and a historical review of the Argentine pension system, we conclude that most of the arguments put forward by the World Bank were refutable at the time of the reform, which did not solve the problems it set out to address. For this reason, decision-makers should heed the economic history of each country before following the recommendations of international organizations.