Abstract
Interest rates level, exchange rates value and the export quantity are the variables of macroeconomy that always change according to the economic condition of a nation. A good knowledge about the effect of these three variables towards the amount of lending by banks, which consists of three kinds: working capital loan, investment loan, and consumption loan, will help banks’ strategic plan to face the economic volatility. Bank is a financial institution that serves as a bridge between parties that have excess funds with parties that need some funds. Banks are expected to provide loans to the public to sustain economic growth with prudence to reduce the risks, which can be customer risks or systemic risks. The goal of this research is to study the effects and relationship between interest rates level, exchange rates movement, and export quantity towards the credit level of banks and also the three kinds of bank loans, which are the working capital loan, investment loan and consumer loan using historical data from Quarter I 2002 to Quarter III 2007. The result of research indicates that the macroeconomic variables above affect the amount of lending and the three kinds of loan: working capital loan, investment loan and consumer loan. The result also shows that although the three macroeconomic variables have the same influence towards the three kinds of loan, the magnitude of the influence towards each kind of loan is different, in which the investment loan has a big influence towards the interest rates level change, working capital loan has a big influence towards the export quantity and exchange rates, and consumer loan has a moderate influence towards the variation of the three macroeconomic variables.
Highlights
Exchange rates value and the export quantity are the variables of macroeconomy that always change according to the economic condition of a nation
A good knowledge about the effect of these three variables towards the amount of lending by banks, which consists of three kinds: working capital loan, investment loan, and consumption loan, will help banks’ strategic plan to face the economic volatility
Bank is a financial institution that serves as a bridge between parties that have excess funds with parties that need some funds
Summary
Sejalan dengan judul dan latar belakang diatas, maka permasalahan yang akan dibahas dalam penelitian ini adalah : Apakah variabel – variabel makro seperti nilai tukar rupiah, tingkat suku bunga, dan jumlah ekspor dapat mempengaruhi jumlah kredit yang terbagi kedalam tiga jenis, yaitu kredit modal kerja, kredit investasi, dan kredit konsumsi?. Tujuan Penelitian Sesuai dengan permasalahan yang diajukan, maka tujuan yang ingin dicapai dari penelitian ini adalah : Untuk membuktikan bahwa variabel – variabel makro seperti nilai tukar rupiah, tingkat suku bunga, dan jumlah ekspor tersebut dapat mempengaruhi jumlah kredit dan apakah memiliki pengaruh yang sama terhadap tiga macam kredit, yaitu kredit modal kerja, kredit investasi, dan kredit konsumsi. Manfaat dari penelitian tersebut diharapkan nantinya dapat dipergunakan bagi pihak perusahaan perbankan sebagai bahan informasi dan masukan tambahan dalam pembuatan anggaran serta perencanaan strategis dalam menjalankan perusahaan di masa yang akan datang. Bagi Investor Dan bagi pihak investor sendiri, diharapkan nantinya hasil dari penelitian tersebut bisa digunakan sebagai informasi tambahan untuk memperkirakan kinerja perbankan berdasarkan indikator-indikator makro yang ada. Bagi peneliti Selain itu juga diharapkan penelitian tersebut bisa digunakan oleh peneliti sebagai media untuk mengaplikasikan teori yang di dapat dengan realisasi dinamika pada industri perbankan dan menguji apakah perubahan indikator makro seperti nilai tukar, tingkat suku bunga dan jumlah ekspor hanya berpengaruh terhadap golongan kredit tertentu saja atau berlaku umum
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