PENGARUH INSTRUMEN DERIVATIF MINYAK MENTAH, INDEKS DOLAR AS, INDEKS SAHAM UNGGULAN, SUKU BUNGA FED DAN INFLASI AS TERHADAP HARGA FUTURES EMAS: ANALISIS PERIODE 2012-2021

Abstract

Gold futures have gained significant attention from investors in recent years, as demonstrated by the increasing trading volumes on the Jakarta Futures Exchange. Gold futures as a popular derivative instrument offers attractive returns and the potential to optimize portfolio allocation, making it one of the most preferred asset classes for investors. This study aims to analyze the influence of key factors such as the US dollar index, S&P 500 stock index, US inflation, FED funds rate, and crude oil futures on gold futures prices. The aim of the study is to provide investors, financial practitioners, and academics with a better understanding of the factors that can influence gold futures prices. This study utilized Error Correction Model as the research method, which effectively addresses the challenges associated with non-stationary time series data and enables the identification of short-term and long-term relationships among variables. The results show that the US dollar index has an inverse relationship with gold futures prices, influencing both the short and long-term. In the long run, an increase in the S&P 500 stock index and US inflation is anticipated to drive up gold futures prices. However, the impact of FED fund rates on gold futures prices is insignificant, primarily due to their low volatility. In addition, crude oil futures, as an alternative asset, have an adverse impact on gold futures prices over the long term.