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Abstract
Indonesia, which is part of Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Group of Twenty, participates in implementing sustainable economic development. There are still constraints in terms of macroeconomic development, such as employment which resulting in unemployment. This condition will affect the society and disrupt social and political stability. So it is necessary to conduct research related to unemployment. Purpose of this study is to analyze inflation effect, human development index, provincial minimum wage on unemployment in Indonesia. Used panel data regression method, with data from 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2015-2018. Unemployment is dependent variable with inflation, the human development index, and the provincial minimum wage as an independent variables. Accordance with the fixed effect model, results shown that inflation and human development index have a negative and significant effect on the unemployment in Indonesia, while the provincial minimum wage is not significant to the unemployment in Indonesia. To reducing unemployment, government can increasing their regions potentials, good regulations, and also society creativity and education. Keywords: Human Development Index, Inflation, Provincial Minimum Wage, Unemployment
Highlights
ABSTRAK Indonesia yang merupakan bagian dari Association of Southeast Asian Nations dan Group of Twenty turut serta melaksanakan pembangunan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan
There are still constraints in terms of macroeconomic development, such as employment which resulting in unemployment
It is necessary to conduct research related to unemployment.Purpose of this study is to analyze inflation effect, human development index, provincial minimum wage on unemployment in Indonesia
Summary
2011-2018 memiliki tren yang berfluktuatif dengan kecenderungan menurun. Pada 2011 merupakan pengangguran tertinggi sebesar 7,48 persen, tetapi setelah itu pengangguran mengalami penurunan. Berdasarkan hasil nilai probabilitas Fstatistik pada model ini bernilai 0,0000 < 0,05, yang artinya dari inflasi, IPM, dan UMP minimal terdapat satu variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia. Inflasi memiliki koefisien sebesar minus 0,005148 dengan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,0446 < 05, yang artinya inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia. Indeks pembangunan manusia memiliki koefisien sebesar minus 5,450613 dengan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,0000 < 0,05, yang artinya IPM berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pengangguran di Indonesia. Tidak sesuai dengan hasil penelitian Prawira (2018), yang mengungkapkan bahwa UMP berpengaruh positif terhadap pengangguran. Adanya kesepakatan antara pemerintah dan pengusaha dalam penetapan UMP tidak menciptakan peningkatan harga tenaga kerja secara signifikan, sehingga tidak menciptakan kondisi penawaran tenaga kerja melebihi permintaannya yang dapat meningkatkan pengangguran. Tingginya pengangguran di Jakarta karena sebagai ibu kota dengan populasi penduduk yang padat mengakibatkan persaingannya semakin ketat, sehingga banyak tenaga kerja yang tidak dapat terserap di pasar
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