PENERAPAN MODEL GENERALIZED SPACE TIME AUTOREGRESSIVE (GSTAR) UNTUK MERAMALKAN PENERBANGAN DOMESTIK PADA TIGA BANDAR UDARA DI PULAU JAWA

Abstract

The number of flights is a thing to measure the marketing performance of aviation services. Forecasting the number of flights is done so that airlines can make decisions in increasing the number of passengers and revenue. Forecasting the number of flights at various airports has relationship between time and location. The suitable method for forecasting the number of flights is Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) method. GSTAR is a method that used for forecasting time series data that has a relationship between time and location and has heterogeneous characteristics. This study applied the GSTAR method to model and forecast the number of domestic flights at three airports in Java, namely Husein Sastranegara Airport Bandung, Ahmad Yani Semarang, and Juanda Surabaya. The research chose those three airports because the impact of Covid-19 is very severe in that area. The weight used in this study is the distance inverse weight. The resulting model is a model with differencing 1, autoregressive order 1, and spatial order limited to 1 so that the model formed is the GSTAR model (11)-I(1). The GSTAR (11)-I(1) meets the assumptions of residual white noise and normal multivariate. The model also has sMAPE values for each airport: 2.60%, 4.18%, and 9.89%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the forecasting results of Husein Sastranegara Airport Bandung, Ahmad Yani Airport Semarang, and Surabaya Juanda Airport are very accurate.