Abstract
Agricultural insurance is an insurance in agriculture sector that is relatively newly introduced in Indonesia. Agricultural insurance based on rainfall index is one of the risk management tool to keep farmers in case of crop failure. This study aims to determine the steps in determining the value of rainfall index on agricultural insurance and calculate the value of agricultural insurance premiums based on simulated rainfall index by Stochastic weather generator with mixed exponential distribution. The results of this study provide value if the amount of rainfall 103,71 mm so that the amount of premium payments equal to Rp19.016, and if the rainfall is high 128.35 mm then the amount of premium payment equal to Rp1.088.000.
Highlights
Agricultural insurance is an insurance in agriculture sector that is relatively newly introduced in Indonesia
This study aims to determine the steps in determining the value of rainfall index on agricultural insurance and calculate the value of agricultural insurance premiums based on simulated rainfall index by Stochastic weather generator with mixed exponential distribution
The results of this study provide value if the amount of rainfall 103,71 mm so that the amount of premium payments equal to Rp19.016, and if the rainfall is high 128.35 mm then the amount of premium payment equal to Rp1.088.000
Summary
Sektor pertanian adalah salah satu jenis usaha dengan risiko ketidakpastiannya cukup tinggi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui prosedur penentuan indeks curah hujan dengan menggunakan Stochastic weather generator dan mengetahui nilai premi asuransi pertanian berbasis indeks curah hujan yang fair. Langkah yang dilakukan untuk simulasi Stochastic weather generator yaitu dengan mencari nilai probabilitas transisi pada rantai Markov kemudian pemdodelan curah hujannya dengan menggunakan distrubusi yang umum. Mensimulasikan terjadinya curah hujan pada bulan , nomor acak dihasilkan menggunakan Program MATLAB 2015 dan dibandingkan dengan probabilitas transisi kritis (persamaan 3) yang tergantung pada curah hujan keadaan bulan sebelumnya di mana bulan basah = 1 dan bulan kering = 0. Probabilitas transisi dapat diperkirakan dari seri curah hujan yang diamati setiap bulan seperti pada tabel dibawah ini. Adalah peluang (risk-neutral) bahwa harga saham akan lebih kecil dari harga tebus pada saat , dan mengakibatkan nilai yang fair. Adalah peluang (risk-neutral) bahwa harga saham akan lebih kecil dari harga tebus pada saat , dan mengakibatkan nilai yang fair. (Dharmawan et al, 2016)
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