Abstract
One commodity whose consumption level is currently very high and continues to increase is coffee. The government's effort to offset domestic demand for coffee which continues to increase every year is to import coffee from neighboring coffee-producing countries. These efforts resulted in fluctuating domestic coffee prices. One way that can be done to anticipate losses due to fluctuations in the price of coffee commodities is to enter into futures trading contracts, but in reality the price fluctuations that occur cause exchange players, both buyers and sellers, to experience difficulties in determining the price of coffee commodities. futures trading contracts. The average return model is an effective way to price futures trading contracts. This model states that the price of a commodity will tend to return to its average value. If the price fluctuates and moves away from the average value, then at a certain time it will return to the average value
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