Penalized Estimation of Free-Knot Splines

Abstract

Polynomial splines are often used in statistical regression models for smooth response functions. When the number and location of the knots are optimized, the approximating power of the spline is improved and the model is nonparametric with locally determined smoothness. However, finding the optimal knot locations is an historically difficult problem. We present a new estimation approach that improves computational properties by penalizing coalescing knots. The resulting estimator is easier to compute than the unpenalized estimates of knot positions, eliminates unnecessary “corners” in the fitted curve, and in simulation studies, shows no increase in the loss. A number of GCV and AIC type criteria for choosing the number of knots are evaluated via simulation.