Penal Populism and the Public Thermostat: Crime, Public Punitiveness, and Public Policy

Will Jennings,Colin Hay,Stephen Farrall,Emily Gray

doi:10.1111/gove.12214

Will Jennings, Colin Hay + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12214

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Abstract

This article makes the case that feedback processes in democratic politics—between crime rates, public opinion, and public policy—can account for the growth of penal populism in Britain. It argues that the public recognize and respond to rising (and falling) levels of crime, and that in turn public support for being tough on crime is translated into patterns of imprisonment. This contributes to debates over the crime–opinion–policy connection, unpacking the dynamic processes by which these relationships unfold at the aggregate level. This uses the most extensive data set ever assembled on aggregate opinion on crime in Britain to construct a new over‐time measure of punitive attitudes. The analysis first tests the thermostatic responsiveness of punitive attitudes to changes in recorded crime rates as well as self‐reported victimization, and then examines the degree to which changes in mass opinion impact on criminal justice policy.

Highlights

This paper makes the case that feedback processes in democratic politics - between crime rates, public opinion and public policy - can account for the growth of penal populism in Britain
This paper sets out theoretical expectations of how feedback between crime rates, public opinion and public policy might account for this rising tide of penal populism in Britain
This study uses the most extensive dataset ever assembled on aggregate opinion on crime and law and order in Britain to construct a new over-time measure of punitive attitudes, contrasting the trend in favour of tougher sentencing with more liberal attitudes on the death penalty

Summary

Forthcoming in Governance

Acknowledgements: earlier versions of this paper were presented at the annual conference of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 2015 and the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties P.S.A. Thanks to Marie Gottshalk and Paul Whiteley for comments on earlier versions of this paper

Data and Analysis Constructing a Measure of Punitive Opinion for Britain

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