PEMODELAN INCIDENT RATE DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI INDONESIA YANG BERKAITAN DENGAN FAKTOR LINGKUNGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR)

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Indonesia often occur in cities and villages. Every year hundreds to thousands of people must be hospitalized due to this disease. There are several factors of the physical environment that directly or indirectly influence the transmission of this disease. Such as rainfall, air temperature, and humidity. In addition to the physical environment there are several other factors that can increase the occurrence of dengue cases, namely population density and the level of larvae free in an area. For this reason, we conducted a study of the above factors and their contribution in the addition of dengue cases that occurred in Indonesia in 2015 using secondary data. The purpose of this study is to identify and make a BDB iricident rate model related to environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, population density, and the amount of rainfall on the number of cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia in 2015. The method used is the Geographically Weighted Regression method. (GWR). In the GWR model the parameter estimation uses Weighted Least Square (WLS) by weighting the gaussian kernel function. The results of the study concluded that modeling with GWR was better than linear regression and the variables were significantly different in each region.