Pemanfaatan Metode Association Rules dan Holt-Winter Multiplicative untuk Meningkatkan Peluang Penjualan Obat Pertanian

Abstract

The competition level between companies on executing product marketing is rapidly increasing, so the companies have to understand the importance of correlation between external environments of company with consumer’s needs. One of the efforts that can be done is by utilizing data warehouse and the application of infrastructure in information and technology field. This research combined Association Rules method to extracting pattern and finding every possibility that potential to increase sales and Holt-Winter Multiplicative method to estimate the alteration of trend on the seasonal data. After passed through data processing process by using RapidMiner tools, information that consists of correlation pattern between rule that describe the comparison of product and the sales working area and season that affects the product sale. The pattern used by company to know which product is often purchased by customer. Besides that, this research produces changing trend data of PT ABC’s product that generated by result of previous data comparison with forecast data. Based on value of error rate Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in estimating forecast result on the PT ABC’s sales transaction data during 3 years, it shows good level of accuracy. Result of data test, by considering rule that formed and forecast result so the company can control and manage product in order to avoid incorrect sales. This thing will effect on repression of operational cost and PT ABC can identify available opportunities to increase sale of agricultural medicine.