Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Based on an Intention Randomness Influence Strategy

Abstract

Pedestrian trajectory prediction is a key technical prerequisite for autonomous vehicle trajectory planning. However, a pedestrian is a changeable individual, and their intentions exhibit certain degrees of randomness and uncertainty, which leads to the issue that modeling only past trajectories does not enable the effective description of the random intentions and future trajectory directions of the pedestrian. Therefore, this paper proposes a flexible and embeddable stochastic intention vector construction strategy for modeling sudden pedestrian intention changes in real scenes and for better fitting the stochastic properties of pedestrian behaviors. First, we dynamically fuse historical trajectory information with random factors and construct an intention change probability based on the historical trajectory fitting errors of pedestrians, aiming to explicitly model the associated direction and velocity changes caused by random pedestrian intentions. Second, a new intention loss function is designed to guide the model to adaptively learn the probability of intention changes, which is used to dynamically describe pedestrian intention changes. Our proposed method is generalizable and can be applied as an embeddable module to any baseline pedestrian trajectory prediction method. The experimental results obtained on multiple large-scale public pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets demonstrate that our strategy achieves consistent performance improvements over different baselines.