Pedestrian-oriented development in Beirut: A framework for estimating urban design impacts on pedestrian flows through modeling, participatory design, and scenario analysis

Abstract

As municipalities are setting ambitious targets to increase non-motorized transportation mode shares, analytic frameworks for examining how such targets will be met become increasingly important. In this article, we update the Urban Network Analysis pedestrian modeling framework designed to link land use and urban development changes with pedestrian mobility outcomes by introducing new methods for capturing the effects of street properties on pedestrian travel demand and adjusting pedestrian trip generation rates with k-nearest accessibility scores based on destination availability in each context. This framework was used in conjunction with a participatory design process in Beirut, Lebanon to estimate pedestrian mobility impacts of three urban design scenarios. We illustrate how each scenario affects pedestrian trip generation across various trip types and trip distribution on individual street segments. Our approach demonstrates how urban design interventions–both land use changes and street quality improvements–can influence pedestrian travel demand. Estimates of these changes can provide planners and policymakers with valuable benefit-cost analyses of public space improvements, and a framework for understanding how site-specific planning and development decisions can impact progress towards (or away from) non-motorized mobility goals.