Abstract
Decreased rainfall and drought due to the long dry season affecting peat fires in Indonesia. This condition causes a decrease in the groundwater level and peat drought, bringing a dry conditions of peat that are suitable for fires. Our prolonged studies revealed a close relationship between precipitation, groundwater levels, and peat fires. This paper aims to assess the risk of peat fires by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We used 18-year daily rainfall data (2000–2017), 16-year hotspot data (2002–2017), and 8-year groundwater level data (2010–2017). Our results showed the strong correlation (r = -0.61) between SPI-1 (short term) and the number of fires. The combination of low rainfall. the peat fire occurrences will increase significantly following less SPI-1 value and decreased groundwater levels during the peak of the dry season. A prolonged dry season followed by less rainfall in the normal rainy season will encourage high-intensity peat fires, bring the important of the using of drought patterns for a better risk assessment of future peat fire occurrences.
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