PEAKS PREDICTION OF BUILDING CARBON EMISSION BASED ON BUILDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION MONITORING: A CASE STUDY OF NINGBO CITY

Abstract

ABSTRACT The premise of implementing the total amount control plan of building carbon emission should be based on the prediction of the future change trend of building carbon emission. This paper investigates and analyzes peaks of building carbon emission in Ningbo city of China through the Ningbo’s building energy monitoring platform and uses the STIRPAT model to predict the medium and long-term carbon emissions in Ningbo. The peak time and peak value of carbon in the construction field at the city level under the dynamic scenario are simulated based on the Monte Carlo method. The results show that under the benchmark scenario, the carbon emission in the construction field of Ningbo will peak around 2037, with a peak of 22.68 million tons. Through the improvement of building energy-saving laws and regulations, the popularization of green energy-saving buildings, and the establishment of a building energy-saving system, the Ningbo construction department will achieve its carbon emission peak time in 2031 (±2), with a peak of about 15.45 (±1.07) million tons of CO2.