Peak load forecasting using Bayesian regularization, Resilient and adaptive backpropagation learning based artificial neural networks

Abstract

Up to 7 days ahead electrical peak load forecasting has been done using feed forward neural network based on Steepest descent, Bayesian regularization, Resilient and adaptive backpropagation learning methods, by incorporating the effect of eleven weather parameters and past peak load information. To avoid trapping of network into a state of local minima, the optimization of user-defined parameters viz., learning rate and error goal has been performed. The sliding window concept has been incorporated for selection of training data set. It was then reduced as per relevant selection according to the day type and season for which the forecast is made. To reduce the dimensionality of input matrix, the Principal Component Analysis method of factor extraction or correlation analysis technique has been used and their performance has been compared. The resultant data set was used for training of three-layered neural network. In order to increase the learning speed, the weights and biases were initialized according to Nguyen and Widrow method. To avoid over fitting, early stopping of training was done at the minimum validation error.