Abstract
This paper uses econometric analysis of aggregate time-series data to explore how different factors have influenced the demand for car travel in Great Britain since 1970 and how the rebound effect has changed over that time. Our results suggest that changes in income, the fuel cost of driving and the level of urbanisation largely explain travel trends over this period – with recent reductions in car travel (peak car) being driven by a combination of the rising fuel cost of driving, increased urbanisation and the economic difficulties created by the 2008 financial crisis. We find some evidence that the proportion of licensed drivers has influenced aggregate travel trends, but no evidence that growing income inequality and the diffusion of ICT technology have played a role. Our results also suggest that the rebound effect from improved fuel efficiency has averaged 26% over this period and that the magnitude of this effect has increased over time. However, methodological and data limitations constrain the level of confidence that we can have in these results.
Highlights
Per capita car travel reached a plateau or began to decline in several OECD countries after the millennium, following more than half a century of continuous growth (Schipper, 2011; Van Dender and Clever, 2013)
Our results suggest that changes in income, the fuel cost of driving and the level of urbanisation largely explain travel trends over this period
The results suggest that a 1% increase in the proportion of the Great Britain (GB) population living in the five largest cities was associated with a 1.7% decrease in distance travelled over the period
Summary
Per capita car travel reached a plateau or began to decline in several OECD countries after the millennium, following more than half a century of continuous growth (Schipper, 2011; Van Dender and Clever, 2013). There has been much debate about the causes of this so-called ‘peak car’ phenomenon and the extent to which it represents a permanent or merely a temporary break with historic trends (Goodwin, 2012; Goodwin and Van Dender, 2013; Millard-Ball and Schipper, 2011; Newman and Kenworthy, 2011; Puentes and Tomer, 2008). Some authors, such as Bastian et al (2016), argue that simple economic models based solely on changes in income and fuel prices ‘‘. Goodwin and Van Dender (2013) argue that: ‘‘. . .an aggregate model focusing on GDP effects and fuel prices is too crude to catch the diversity and dynamics underlying aggregate car travel demand and how it changes. . .”
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