PD65-03 PROSTATE SPECIFIC ANTIGEN THRESHOLD OF 1.0 PREDICTS LONG-TERM PROSTATE CANCER RISK FROM A PROSPECTIVE COHORT ANALYSIS

Abstract

You have accessJournal of UrologyProstate Cancer: Detection & Screening VII (PD65)1 Sep 2021PD65-03 PROSTATE SPECIFIC ANTIGEN THRESHOLD OF 1.0 PREDICTS LONG-TERM PROSTATE CANCER RISK FROM A PROSPECTIVE COHORT ANALYSIS Christine Ibilibor, Jonathan Gelfond, Martin Goros, Teresa Johnson-Pais, Robin Leach, Ian M. Thompson, and Michael Liss Christine IbiliborChristine Ibilibor More articles by this author , Jonathan GelfondJonathan Gelfond More articles by this author , Martin GorosMartin Goros More articles by this author , Teresa Johnson-PaisTeresa Johnson-Pais More articles by this author , Robin LeachRobin Leach More articles by this author , Ian M. ThompsonIan M. Thompson More articles by this author , and Michael LissMichael Liss More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000002109.03AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: We investigated baseline prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing related to the future risk of prostate cancer development to inform optimal screening timepoints. METHODS: The San Antonio Biomarkers of Risk (SABOR) cohort is a contemporary, multi-ethnic, multi-racial population of men with no prostate cancer diagnosis at the time of enrollment in 2000. We calculated the risk of developing high-grade prostate cancer by applying the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator 2.0 (PCPT RC) at enrollment and annually for up to 15-years of follow up. We used baseline risk factors and PSA to estimate long-term PCPT risk of high-grade prostate cancer using a linear mixed effects model. We stratified the risk groups by baseline PSA level above or below 1 ng/ml. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 4,170 men with a median follow up of 5.6 years (interquartile range of 0.9 to 11.6 years). The proportion of patients whose baseline PSA was > 1.0ng/ml with a PCPT risk of high-grade cancer greater than 5% at 5-, 10-, and 15-years of follow-up was 42.8%, 63.8%, and 77.9%, respectively, compared to 2.5%, 10.8%, and 28.1% for men whose baseline PSA was < 1.0ng/ml. Notably, when PCPT risk of high-grade disease and follow up time were modelled, age and African American race had a greater impact on risk of high-grade disease than PSA. CONCLUSIONS: Men with a baseline PSA level < 1 ng/ml maintain a low risk for the development of high-grade prostate cancer over a 5-year period, arguing for less frequent PSA testing in this population. Source of Funding: This research was supported in part by funding from the National Cancer Institute (U01 CA096492 and P30 CA054174) and the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas CPRIT (RP170345). Christine Ibilibor has received research support through the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio Cancer CPRIT Research Training Award (RP170345) © 2021 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 206Issue Supplement 3September 2021Page: e1152-e1153 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2021 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Christine Ibilibor More articles by this author Jonathan Gelfond More articles by this author Martin Goros More articles by this author Teresa Johnson-Pais More articles by this author Robin Leach More articles by this author Ian M. Thompson More articles by this author Michael Liss More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Loading ...