PCV53 - Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease And Stroke And The Impact Of Modifiable Risk Factors In Taiwan

Abstract

This study aims to estimate burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, and quantify impact of reducing modifiable risk factors in Taiwan. A burden of disease model was developed to estimate (1) the burden of IHD and stroke among people aged ≥20 years; and (2) the impact of reducing modifiable risk factors (including tobacco use, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity) in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) targets. Review of literature and government publications was conducted to generate model inputs that include a population forecast, disease and risk factor prevalence, CVD event rates, disease-related mortality and costs. Direct costs to the public health care system and indirect costs from lost productivity due to hospitalizations and premature mortality were included. The number of people with IHD and stroke in Taiwan is projected to increase from 478,988 in 2017 to 730,632 in 2035 (average IHD:stroke ratio for prevalence=53%:47%). The number of deaths due to IHD and stroke would increase from 14,947 in 2017 to 27,101 in 2035 (average IHD:stroke ratio for deaths=63%:37%). The economic burden would increase from NTD$33 billion in 2017 to NTD$64 billion in 2035 (average IHD:stroke ratio for costs=53%:47%). Efforts to achieving the WHO risk factor targets would save from 108 lives and total costs of NTD$247 million in 2017 to 1,749 lives and NTD$4.3 billion in 2035. The burden of IHD and stroke in Taiwan is significant and growing. Efforts to achieve five WHO risk factor targets would alleviate the burden.