PCN264 ESTIMATING THE BURDEN OF SALIVARY GLAND CANCER IN NORDIC COUNTRIES: A PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS USING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS METHODS

Abstract

Overall prevalence of salivary gland cancer (SGC) have increased over the years (11.55/100,000 in 1998 to 13.62/100,000 in 2015) and the number of cases diagnosed each year has also been trending upwards. While these trends may have implications for health system costs, the burden of SGC is yet to be fully assessed. Nordic registry data were examined to estimate the incidence of SGC and to predict the trends in these new cases of SGC in order to assess the future burden of the disease in the Nordics. SGC incidence data from 1978 to 2015 were obtained from NORDCAN. Assumptions of stationarity and auto-correlation were checked using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and auto-correlation function (ACF), respectively. SGC incidence were forecast through to 2025 using ARIMA models. Data were segmented between 1978-2010 for estimation and 2011-2015 for validation. The model selection was based on the Akaike information criteria (AIC), and the verification was based on examining the residual plots. Data analysis were conducted using R(v3.6.0). The incidence of SGC in Nordic countries is expected to rise from 217 in 2015 to 307 in 2025. Between 2015-2025, it is expected that the incidence rate in males will increase by 6% (1.05/100,000 to 1.15/100,000). The number of new cases in males is expected to increase from 112 in 2015 to 164 in 2025, a 46% increase. The incidence rate in females is expected to remain stationary. However, the number of cases will grow from 105 in 2015 to 143 in 2025, a 37% increase. This study predicts an increase in the incidence of SGC in males in the Nordic region by 2025. However, the incidence rate in females is predicted to be stationary. The application of this analysis could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.