Paving the way for sustainable agriculture: An analysis of evolution and driving forces of methane emissions reduction in China

Abstract

The agriculture sector in China faces the dual challenge of ensuring food security while reducing methane emissions. This study investigates the factors driving changes in methane emissions from rice cultivation, livestock manure, and enteric fermentation in the agricultural sector between 2010 and 2019. First, we use the extended Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method to measure four effects—emission source structure, emission intensity, economic activity, and population effects. Second, Tapio's decoupling index is employed to analyze the association between export-induced methane emissions and economic growth over the entire period. The results show that (1) rice cultivation is the primary contributor to the overall increase in national CH4 emissions, particularly after 2014, while CH4 emissions from other sources have decreased; (2) economic activity is the key driver of rising methane emissions, while emission intensity has the opposite impact, albeit with a decreasing contribution; and (3) decoupling states exhibit weak and strong decoupling recently, indicating the preliminary performance of the transformation of farm management. Furthermore, we find heterogeneous and spatially imbalanced performance in CH4 emission mitigation among provinces. Although China is on the right track to reduce CH4 emissions and upgrade the domestic and international agricultural structure, this has not been achieved at the provincial level.