Abstract
France has set ambitious targets for hydrogen production in its National Roadmap, aiming to install at least 6.5 GW of electrolyzer capacity and produce 700,000 tons of hydrogen annually by 2030. The country is focusing on producing renewable or low-carbon hydrogen primarily through electrolysis. However, it faces significant barriers in rapidly scaling up renewable energy infrastructure and may need to consider import strategies to address potential shortages. Addressing these challenges requires investigating whether the availability of renewable energy for the production of electrolytic hydrogen could become a limiting factor for hydrogen adoption and potentially act as a bottleneck in its market integration. The methodology merges forecasts from the public and private sectors to address both renewable and non-renewable electricity production and the energy needed for rising hydrogen demand. The approach developed involves estimating France’s renewable energy supply up to 2050 and determines how much of this energy can be allocated to hydrogen production to ensure it remains carbon-free and genuinely renewable. Unlike many existing roadmaps that take a more general approach, the innovative part of this study is developing a territorial perspective to conduct a detailed analysis of potential mismatches between hydrogen supply and demand.Three distinct sources of electricity are considered for the electrolyzers, which could be connected to the grid or directly to renewable power plants: low-carbon electricity from the French grid, renewable electricity from re-powered solar and wind farms, and renewable electricity from newly installed power plants. Total electricity demand is projected to rise from 475 TWh/y in 2020 to 754 TWh/y in 2050, with the share of renewable energy increasing from 19% in 2020 to 69% in 2050.The study evaluates the demand for hydrogen in two key sectors, industry, which is heavily dependent on hydrogen, and mobility, which currently has a more modest contribution. Hydrogen demand is expected to increase from nearly 310 ktons per day in 2025 to over 2650 ktons per day by 2050.Given an average specific consumption of 55 kWh of electricity per kg of hydrogen produced, the total electricity demand for electrolytic hydrogen production is projected to grow from 17 TWh/year in 2025 to 146 TWh/year in 2050.It can be concluded that allocating the entire anticipated production from re-powered solar and on-shore wind farms in the coming years will not be sufficient to meet the electricity demand required for electrolytic hydrogen production. To prevent renewable energy from becoming a bottleneck for hydrogen market integration and to avoid the need for hydrogen imports, it is crucial to allocate 5% to 10% of the projected renewable output from newly installed plants to address the increasing hydrogen demand. This result is key to creating an optimal design model for hydrogen supply chains.
Published Version
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