Pavement Deterioration Model Incorporating Unobserved Heterogeneity for Optimal Life-Cycle Rehabilitation Policy

Abstract

Both deterioration and policy optimization models play a key role in pavement infrastructure management. A successful management system requires sound deterioration modeling as the basis for the policy optimization modeling and an effective integration of these two components. A significant amount of research has been conducted in both areas. However, an in-depth literature review suggests that a major aspect needs significant improvement—the development and integration of more comprehensive and realistic deterioration modeling for the selection of optimum rehabilitation policies. Deterioration models currently used are usually simple models due to lack of quality data or are often simplified to accommodate the optimization models for feasible solutions. Very few systems, if any, consider unobserved heterogeneity in the deterioration model involved in the policy optimization framework. To address this important aspect, this study developed a comprehensive pavement deterioration model incorporating both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Furthermore, the results demonstrate how the established model is successfully integrated into the objective function to realize optimal rehabilitation policy in terms of total life-cycle cost.