Abstract
Hungary has had one of the highest suicide mortality rates in the world for decades. Investigating seasonality of suicide deaths is essential as its findings could be key elements in the prevention. In our study we have analyzed the seasonal effect in suicide mortality in relation to possible risk factors in Hungary during 1995–2017.Data on the numbers of suicide deaths were obtained from a published online database. Negative binomial regression was employed to investigate the effect of possible risk factors and seasonal and annual trends in suicide rates. The seasonal effect was further investigated, adding a significant risk factor from the “initial” negative binomial regression.The suicide risk was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in men than in women (incidence rate ratio: 3.48), and it increased with age and decreased with education level. Marriage was a protective factor against suicide. Annual suicide mortality declined significantly (p < 0.001 for trend) from 36.7 (95% confidence interval: 35.5–37.9) to 16.5 (15.7–17.3) per 100,000 persons per year during the study period. Significant seasonality was found in suicide rates with a peak in late June. Similar peaks were observed at each level of each risk factor. There were differences in peaks by suicide method. The peak of non-violent suicides was in early June; suicides committed by violent methods peaked half a month later.This study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on suicide deaths between 1995 and 2017, which remained significant even in the presence of each risk factor. To our knowledge, this has been the first study to investigate the seasonal pattern so extensively in Hungary. Our findings confirm that the environmental effects are involved in the etiology of suicide mortality.
Highlights
From 1960, the Hungarian suicide mortality rate had been consistently among the highest ones for decades (Rihmer et al, 2013)
We examined the suicide risk for unmarried persons in the subpopulation aged over 15 years, which showed a slight decrease (IRR: 1.35, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 1.29–1.41; p < 0.001)
As far as we are aware, there is no study to date that has published the seasonal pattern of suicides by educational attainment; our study revealed that there was almost no difference between the peaks in Hungary
Summary
From 1960, the Hungarian suicide mortality rate had been consistently among the highest ones for decades (Rihmer et al, 2013). Similar peaks were detected in other Central European countries, such as Austria (for June) and the Czech Republic, Germany and Switzerland (all for May) (Petridou et al, 2002) This can partly be explained by the “relative unhappiness” phenomenon (due to increased intensity of social life (Preti, 2002)) and the “broken-promise effect” proposed by Gabennesch (Gabennesch, 1988) (with the beginning of summer, unfulfilled expectations lead to extreme forms of disappointment). Educational attainment shows one of the most consistent and strongest relationships with various indicators of health status (Elo et al, 2009) (including those that might lead to suicidal ideation) Apart from these factors, the role of suicide method might be important in a seasonal investigation of suicide mortality (as seasonal peaks could vary by suicide method)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
