Patterns of Residual Criminal Careers among a Sample of Adjudicated French-Canadian Males

Abstract

This study investigates distributions of residual career length (RCL), which refers to the number of years remaining in criminal careers up to the point of termination. Analyses are based on a sample of French-Canadian adjudicated males from the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study and include both self-reports and official records up to age 40. Distributions of RCL are presented according to age, serial conviction number, time since the previous conviction, age of onset, and offence type. Findings show that the number of years remaining in criminal careers declines at a steady pace with age, even among this sample of serious and persistent offenders. RCL also tends to decline with each successive conviction, with increased time lags between the current and previous offences, and with later onset. Furthermore, the accuracy of predictions of RCL based on information available in official records is notable, given the scepticism of past research on this issue. Distributions of self-reported and official RCL were often highly similar, suggesting that official records appear to provide a reasonably accurate picture of criminal careers among high-rate offenders. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.