Patterns of passenger traffic formation in urban public transport

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to perform a detailed statistical analysis of passenger traffic flows at stops of various bus routes in the city of Krasnoyarsk. The authors used the following methods: spectral analysis, factor analysis, correlation and cross-correlation analyses. During the study, indicators of passenger traffic irregularity in time and direction in Krasnoyarsk were obtained. The authors established a rather inertial nature of passenger traffic, with a positive correlation of up to two weeks, indicating stable patterns that can be predicted. The spectral analysis revealed three peaks in passenger traffic seasonality. The correlation and cross-correlation analyses showed strong relationships between inter-stop passenger traffic flows. The factor analysis made it possible to determine that only one principal component can provide 65% of information about the entire passenger traffic volume on urban public transport routes.