Abstract
ObjectiveThis paper examines the trends of mortality in the elderly people in Chi Linh during period 2004–2012 and identifies a number of factors related to mortality in the elderly.DesignThe longitudinal study method is used. The analyzed data is extracted from database of theDemographic—Epidemiologic Surveillance System (DESS) of Chililab. The data is collected from 7 communes/town of Chi Linh district, Hai Duong province during 2004–2012 with all elderly people. Descriptive statistical analysis and survival analysis using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox regression models were used. The indirect standardization was used to compare between the mortality rate of the elderly in Chi Linh and the rates of those in some reference groups.ResultsMortality rate in elderly tend to decrease over the period 2004–2012. In all the time, mortality rate in elderly men is higher than that in the elderly women. Specific mortality rates by age groups have increased in both males and females. The increase Age specific mortality rates in males is higher than females. Indirect standardized mortality data for the elderly in 2009 in Chi Linh, Vietnam, Canada, the United States of America (USA) showed that elderly mortality rate in Chililab in 2009 was lower than that in elderly of Vietnam (standardized mortality ratio—SMR of elderly in Chililab is only by 75% in comparison with elderly of Vietnam), and also lower than that in elderly people in the US, and Canada. Cox regression analysis (multivariate models) show that with every 1 year older, the risk of death in elderly men increased by 9% and 12% increase in elderly female, for both men and women general risk increased by 10% (p < 0.05). Elderly with higher education levels, elderly with better family economic conditions; elderly living with wife/husband have lower mortality risk than the other counterparts.ConclusionsThe research results suggest some recommendations: Strengthening health care programs for elderly people with low education levels, poor economic conditions, and celibacy groups (the vulnerable groups).
Highlights
Population aging is one important demographic trend in the 21st century and increased rapidly in developed countries where the population aged 60 years old or over has experienced the fastest pace ever: growing at 3.7 per cent annually between 2010 and 2015 and is estimated to go up by 2.9 per cent annually before 2050 and 0.9 per cent annually between 2050 and 2100, increasing from 554 million people in 2013 to 1.6 billion people in 2050 [1]
Objective: This paper examines the trends of mortality in the elderly people in Chi Linh during period 2004–2012 and identifies a number of factors related to mortality in the elderly
The study results show that the age-specific mortality rates among elderly people living in Chi Linh had an inclination to decline over time
Summary
Population aging is one important demographic trend in the 21st century and increased rapidly in developed countries where the population aged 60 years old or over has experienced the fastest pace ever: growing at 3.7 per cent annually between 2010 and 2015 and is estimated to go up by 2.9 per cent annually before 2050 and 0.9 per cent annually between 2050 and 2100, increasing from 554 million people in 2013 to 1.6 billion people in 2050 [1]. The age-specific mortality rates in developed countries indicated that the mortality rates reduced dramatically in young age groups thanks to medical advancements, higher quality of life and mortality rates increased in old age groups due to aging and the increased proportion of the elderly. The mortality in all age groups in the world during 1970–2010 experienced a gradual reduction [2,3]
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