Abstract
Now the attention of the whole world is focused on the developing pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. This article discusses mortality patterns of the deadliest epidemic in the last 120 years – the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Statistical sources from Italy and the USA, published shortly after the pandemic, were analyzed. The analysis was carried out for mortality from all causes, since in this case inaccuracies associated with establishing the causes of death are minimized. Despite the fact that the first cases of the Spanish flu appeared in the United States as early as March 1918, this first wave of epidemic practically did not affect the total mortality rate. The main peak of mortality in 1918 occurred in October 1918 both in the USA and Italy, with a gradual decrease in mortality over several months. Analysis of age-specific mortality demonstrates a significant increase in mortality at middle ages (20–50 years) in 1918 compared with 1917. Analysis of mortality trends using the method of latent variables shows a significant increase in the background mortality factor in 1918, which turned out to be higher for Italy than the mortality losses during the Second World War. The Spanish flu pandemic differs from the current coronavirus pandemic, because of significant increase in mortality of middle-aged people, while the COVID-19 pandemic causes a more marked increase in mortality among the elderly. With this, the COVID-19 pandemic is more like the recent flu epidemics than the earlier Spanish flu pandemic.
Highlights
The attention of the whole world is focused on the developing pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19
Despite the fact that the first cases of the Spanish flu appeared in the United States as early as March 1918, this first wave of epidemic practically did not affect the total mortality rate
Analysis of age-specific mortality demonstrates a significant increase in mortality at middle ages (20–50 years) in 1918 compared with 1917
Summary
The world’s attention is focused on the news of the coronavirus pandemic. it is difficult to assess the true extent of this pandemic, since the number of infected people depends on the number of tests performed, and the number of deaths from coronavirus depends on the specifics of cause-of-death registration in each particular country or even region. We consider the patterns of mortality during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 using the data for Italy and the USA These countries are currently leading in the number of persons infected with COVID-19. In this figure, peaks of background mortality are noticeable in 1918 (the epidemic of Spanish flu) and in the 1940s (World War II). Studies have shown that this phenomenon was observed among the population of Europe and the United States, but in the more remote regions of Latin America and the Pacific Islands, the mortality of the elderly from the Spanish flu was even higher than at younger ages. We can hope that in the case of coronavirus pandemic, the acute phase heralded by mortality surge will not last long
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