Patterns of intragenerational social mobility: An analysis of heterogeneity of occupational careers

Abstract

Abstract This article analyzes patterns of intragenerational social mobility, employing an extension of current statistical models to investigate changes in career patterns over the past 80 years in Germany. A harmonized data set from the German Life History Study and the National Educational Panel Study is used to estimate growth mixture models that classify career trajectories into different classes, thus taking into account heterogeneity of occupational careers. Three patterns of intragenerational social mobility could be identified. The largest class represents stable career trajectories (79 percent), while downwardly and upwardly mobile trajectories comprise 8 and 12 percent of all individuals, respectively. Multinomial logit models that control for children, educational level, unemployment risk, and inter- and intra-firm transitions show for men in cohorts 1960–1989 a lower share of stable career patterns and more downwardly mobile careers compared to cohorts 1950–1959. A rise in upwardly-mobile career trajectories can also be observed in younger cohorts. For women no clear trend can be shown. The present analysis confirms existing studies showing only modest changes in intragenerational social mobility over time. Additionally, the analysis shows that incorporating career heterogeneity can usefully extend established models.