Patterns of Grid Operation Under Rising Household PV Battery Adoption

Abstract

The significant penetration of Australian rooftop PV continues to challenge grid operators due to limited visibility and an inability to control these assets. With PV-battery system costs expected to continue decreasing, their widespread adoption and operational implications are a growing concern. This paper utilizes a techno-economic investment modelling approach to simulate cumulative household investment in PV and battery capacity using 261 real-world underlying demand and solar insolation profiles. With market and policy conditions consistent with Perth, Australia, the findings suggest that as households transition from PV-only to PV-battery systems, there is an economic incentive to further increase their existing PV system capacity, raising the quantity of grid exports over the summer months while retaining residual demand over the winter months. At the diurnal-scale, PV-battery systems shift peak demand away from the late afternoon into the early-morning hours. The occurrence of the midday minimum demand continues to increase, and the quantity of midday grid exports also rises, adding to the risk of further increases in generator ramping. These results indicate that household PV-battery systems can drive further grid operation changes and highlights the need to develop capabilities to proactively manage these behind-themeter assets.