Patterns of Fertility Decline and the Impact of Alternative Scenarios of Future Fertility Change in sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract

Our aim in this chapter is to provide an updated and concise description of the diversity of fertility decline patterns among countries1 in sub- Saharan Africa drawing on the latest series of fertility estimates that take into account many different data sources and that are harmonized with other demographic components (United Nations 2015d). We focus on the level of fertility prior to the start of fertility decline the time period of the fertility transition and the estimated pace of decline. We also explore the implications of different fertility decline patterns for future fertility and population projections in the region. We draw on the distinct patterns of fertility decline among countries worldwide that are advanced in (or have completed) their first fertility transition to construct probabilistic fertility and population projections for sub-Saharan African countries. The illustrative comparisons of projections highlight the demographic impact if future fertility decline in sub-Saharan countries were to accelerate and follow the rapid pace of decline already experienced by a diverse group of countries. (excerpt)