Patterns of Economic Interdependence in Latin America

Abstract

This study investigates business cycle synchronization and transmission patterns among the major Latin American countries and their linkages with the United States and Europe. Correlations, principal components, trade patterns, vector autoregressions, and impulse responses are used to discern the business cycle transmission patterns. There is moderate evidence of a unique Latin American business cycle and of business cycle transmission among the Latin American economies. Most transmission linkages come from outside Latin America. The European business cycle has a slightly stronger influence upon most Latin American economies than the influence of the US business cycle. Brazil is clearly the most influential Latin American economy in terms of business cycle transmission.