Patterns of Change in the Use of Imprisonment in the American States: An Integration of Path Dependence, Punctuated Equilibrium and Policy Design Approaches

Abstract

This study analyzes changes from 1927 through 2003 in the use of incarceration by the American States, testing propositions derived from path dependency/punctuated equilibrium theory and from an extension of the social construction theory of policy design. The results suggest that incarceration changes often were path dependent, but that periods of equilibrium-type change with up and down adjustments also were relatively common until a critical juncture occurred in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The results also show that the states tended to change in the same direction, at the same time, as if some kind of national policy mood was important, even though incarceration rates are produced by state-level decisionmakers working in many different types of state and local institutional settings. The results confirm the proposition from the social construction theory of policy design that upward paths will be more common, last longer, more extreme, and harder to break than downward ones. Analysis of the public opinion variables most closely related to the social construction of law breakers indicates that small year-to-year changes were not very useful in explaining annual rates of incarceration change. On the other hand, a very rapid movement toward a more negative social construction may have been one of the factors important in triggering the critical juncture that occurred in all states. And, an exceptionally high and “sticky” negative construction of criminals extending for more than 30 years may be important in understanding the “stickiness” of institutions that produce incarceration rates.