Patterns in the distributions of species and the selection of nature reserves: An example from Eucalyptus forests in South-eastern New South Wales

Abstract

The distribution of tree species in a large forested area of south-eastern New South Wales, Australia, is predicted from a sample of the forest using statistical models. The resulting maps of probability of occurrence are used to measure the extent to which the existing reserve network represents all species, identify areas likely to have species not represented, and compare the existing reserve network with simulated single large reserves of equivalent total area. A single long narrow rectangle following the steep gradient in rainfall and temperature from the tableland across the ranges to the coast would contain more species than the existing reserve network but no other configuration would contain more. A suite of species not represented in the existing reserve network was identified and the area where those species are likely to occur was mapped. This area is part of the tableland-coast gradient not covered by any existing reserves. If part of this area was to be added to the reserve network, all species would be represented and the reserve network would encompass more species than any single large configuration.