Abstract
New England forests provide numerous benefits to the region’s residents, but are undergoing rapid development. We used boosted regression tree analysis (BRT) to assess geographic predictors of forest loss to development between 2001 and 2011. BRT combines classification and regression trees with machine learning to generate non-parametric statistical models that can capture non-linear relationships. Based on National Land Cover Database (NLCD) maps of land cover change, we assessed the importance of the biophysical and social variables selected for full region coverage and minimal collinearity in predicting forest loss to development, specifically: elevation, slope, distance to roads, density of highways, distance to built land, distance to cities, population density, change in population density, relative change in population density, population per housing unit, median income, state, land ownership categories and county classification as recreation or retirement counties. The resulting models explained 6.9% of the variation for 2001–2011, 4.5% for 2001–2006 and 1.8% for 2006–2011, fairly high values given the complexity of factors predicting land development and the high resolution of the spatial datasets (30-m pixels). The two most important variables in the BRT were “population density” and “distance to road”, which together made up 55.5% of the variation for 2001–2011, 49.4% for 2001–2006 and 42.9% for 2006–2011. The lower predictive power for 2006–2011 may reflect reduced development due to the “Great Recession”. From our models, we generated high-resolution probability surfaces, which can provide a key input for simulation models of forest and land cover change.
Highlights
New England is a heavily-forested region, and its forests provide numerous benefits to its residents, including water filtration, flood mitigation, aesthetics and recreation, as well as a source of timber [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]
Given the ecosystem services provided by New England forests, planners in the region have a strong interest in understanding the dynamics of changing forest cover, in order to assess the possible impact of these changes and to identify priority areas for conservation (e.g., [11])
Our analysis of land cover change from National Land Cover Database (NLCD) maps showed a conversion of 35,500 ha
Summary
New England is a heavily-forested region, and its forests provide numerous benefits to its residents, including water filtration, flood mitigation, aesthetics and recreation, as well as a source of timber [1,2,3,4,5,6,7]. Given the ecosystem services provided by New England forests, planners in the region have a strong interest in understanding the dynamics of changing forest cover, in order to assess the possible impact of these changes and to identify priority areas for conservation (e.g., [11]). Information on changing land cover informs projections and scenarios for long-term land cover in the region, providing tools to assess possible trajectories for long-term changes in ecosystem services (e.g., [12,13,14]). The American Midwest was opened up for agriculture, and New England agriculture subsequently declined over the interval from 1870–1970, permitting recovery of forests to 80% cover, even as the population continued to grow [2]. In 1970, loss of forest to sprawled development overtook reforestation of abandoned agricultural areas, and forest area began to decline again [2,15,16]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
