Patterning uncertainty: partial likeness, analogy and likelihood

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the role of similarity judgements in Keynes’s theory of analogy as discussed in the Treatise on Probability (Keynes, 1921) and outlines a conceptual framework in which induction by analogy based on the identification of partial resemblances leads to likelihood as the central disposition by which human actors assign a pattern to uncertainty. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 2 discusses Keynes’ view of analogy as the foundation of inductive inference. Section 3 outlines a theory of similarity based on Keynes’s criteria of finite variety and negative analogy. Section 4 highlights the relationship between a similarity-based theory of induction and Keynes’ ontological view that similarity features derive from a finite number of ‘generator properties’. Section 5 examines the social structuring of similarity features and the active role of agents in constructing the inductive knowledge of the world they inhabit. Section 6 brings the paper to close by calling attention to the relationship between dispositions, circumstantial visualisation of similarity features and problem-solving actions in the world of practice.