Pattern of capital inflows in BRICS: Aspects to ponder for policy implementation

Abstract

Surge in capital inflows can stimulate economic growth in developing countries and also lead to macroeconomic fluctuations of varied nature. This makes the analysis of determinants of capital inflows in developing countries interesting. The behavior of capital inflows in the long and short run has been under study. Such analysis could help to avoid undesirable consequences of surge in capital inflows. Traditional literatures on determinants of capital inflows are bifurcated into push and pull factors. The present research focuses on pull factors determining the inflows of capital. This research tries to identify main determinants of capital inflows in BRICS using Vector Autoregression (VAR) technique. Johansen cointegration and Augmented Dickey fuller test are used for data analysis. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) which is a restricted VAR is used for the analysis since Johansen cointegration test suggested cointegration among the variables in the long run for BRICS. The lag length of the model is determined by performing Schwarz Information Criterion. Impulse response function is used to gauge the effects of shocks on capital inflows with World Bank’s annual data (1992-2012). The variables used in the study include capital inflows (sum of FDI and portfolio equity), inflation, exchange rate, Gross Capital Formation and Gross Domestic Product. All the variables are constant at 2005 U.S. dollars. All the diagnostic testing done for BRICS countries made it relevant to estimate the equations using OLS estimate. In Brazil, capital inflows are influenced by lagged and current values of GDP, GCF and Exchange rate. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimates of Russian economy indicates cointegration of capital inflows with GDP and Inflation in the long run. Capital inflows in Indian economy is determined by inflation and exchange rate. In China higher GCF plays an important role in attracting capital inflows. In South Africa only inflation is causative factor which determines capital inflows. The Gross Domestic Product is observed to be the vital factor determining the capital inflows to BRICS. The study forecasts improvement of investment climate for attracting capital inflows into BRICS. Economic stability of BRICS is found to be one of the major factors influencing capital inflows in BRICS. The study forecast that in economies of Russia, India and South Africa emergency measures should be taken to curb inflation. Inflation, GDP, GCF and exchange rate are critical factors in attracting capital inflows, which helps in formulating appropriate policies for improving the performance of domestic economy.