Pattern of Agricultural Progress in India’s North-East and the Contributing Factors: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Despite being blessed with rich agro-climatic conditions, the largest agrarian state in India’s North-East, Assam recorded relatively poor agricultural growth, since independence. The question of agricultural performance in terms of use of factors and growth pattern always arise that seems to vary in different stages of policy shift. Agricultural diversity increased in the initial phase with the expansion of agricultural area but slowed down in the later stages. However, the nature of agricultural diversity and use of resources including land allocations reflects the adaptation of farming community, absorption of labour force and sustainability of earning of farmers. The objectives are to analyze: i) the pattern of agricultural growth, diversity; ii) relative contribution of crop diversification, yield and area towards output growth in the pre-Green Revolution, Green Revolution and Post-Reform period; iii) association of various factors with crop yields in the short run and the adjustment process in the long run. Using secondary data, semi-log linear and spline regression functions we examined the growth and stationarity of growth processes is checked by ADF test. Times series analyses like cointegration and ARDL bound testing approach has been followed to examine the relation of various factors with yield of various crops in the short and long run. The ECM also provides the process of adjustment and CUSUM(Q) test is used for checking fitness of the models. Changes in diversity are analyzed through Herfindahl Index and the additive decomposition technique is employed to examine changing contribution of growth of yield, area and cropping pattern and their interactions. The result reveals varied impacts of main weather variable (rainfall), technological factors and cropping intensity on the yields of crops in different phases since 1950-51. Area effect on output and cropping pattern growth though declined, yield growth contributed increasingly in successive sub-periods in Assam. However, the contribution of modern technology towards the growth has not been uniform in the three major stages of agricultural transformation in Assam.