Pattern and predictors of death from aluminum and zinc phosphide poisoning using multi-kernel optimized relevance vector machine

Abstract

The use of metal phosphides, particularly aluminum phosphide, poses a significant threat to human safety and results in high mortality rates. This study aimed to determine mortality patterns and predictive factors for acute zinc and aluminum phosphide poisoning cases that were admitted to Menoufia University Poison and Dependence Control Center from 2017 to 2021. Statistical analysis revealed that poisoning was more common among females (59.7%), aged between 10 and 20 years, and from rural regions. Most cases were students, and most poisonings were the result of suicidal intentions (78.6%). A new hybrid model named Bayesian Optimization-Relevance Vector Machine (BO-RVM) was proposed to forecast fatal poisoning. The model achieved an overall accuracy of 97%, with high positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) values of 100% and 96%, respectively. The sensitivity was 89.3%, while the specificity was 100%. The F1 score was 94.3%, indicating a good balance between precision and recall. These results suggest that the model performs well in identifying both positive and negative cases. Additionally, the BO-RVM model has a fast and accurate processing time of 379.9595 s, making it a promising tool for various applications. The study underscores the need for public health policies to restrict the availability and use of phosphides in Egypt and adopt effective treatment methods for phosphide-poisoned patients. Clinical suspicion, positive silver nitrate test for phosphine, and analysis of cholinesterase levels are useful in diagnosing metal phosphide poisoning, which can cause various symptoms.