Patients with severe acute-on-chronic liver failure are disadvantaged by model for end-stage liver disease-based organ allocation policy.

Abstract

Mortality for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) may be underestimated by the model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) score. To assess waitlist outcomes across varying grades of ACLF among a cohort of patients listed with a MELD-Na score ≥35, and therefore having similar priority for liver transplantation. We analysed the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, years 2010-2017. Waitlist outcomes were evaluated using Fine and Gray's competing risks regression. We identified 6342 candidates at listing with a MELD-Na score ≥35, of whom 3122 had ACLF-3. Extra-hepatic organ failures were present primarily in patients with four to six organ failures. Competing risks regression revealed that candidates listed with ACLF-3 had a significantly higher risk for 90-day waitlist mortality (Sub-hazard ratio (SHR)=1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.78) relative to patients with lower ACLF grades. Subgroup analysis of ACLF-3 revealed that both the presence of three organ failures (SHR=1.40, 95% CI 1.20-1.63) or four to six organ failures at listing (SHR=3.01; 95% CI 2.54-3.58) was associated with increased waitlist mortality. Candidates with four to six organ failures also had the lowest likelihood of receiving liver transplantation (SHR=0.61, 95% CI 0.54-0.68). The Share 35 rule was associated with reduced 90-day waitlist mortality among the full cohort of patients listed with ACLF-3 and MELD-Na score ≥35 (SHR=0.59; 95% CI 0.49-0.70). However, Share 35 rule implementation was not associated with reduced waitlist mortality among patients with four to six organ failures (SHR=0.76; 95% CI 0.58-1.02). The MELD-Na score disadvantages patients with ACLF-3, both with and without extra-hepatic organ failures. Incorporation of organ failures into allocation policy warrants further exploration.