Pathways towards evidence-based decision-making for improving New Zealand farm sustainability

Abstract

More incorporation of scientific evidence, and better prioritisation of interventions, might improve the performance of agri-environmental schemes. Data simulations using a biodiversity tool for New Zealand farms highlight the penalties of failing to prioritise farm interventions and refine industry-wide biodiversity management targets in relation to socially licensing farming, encouraging investment and participation by all stakeholders, and securing sustainable food and fibre production. Evidence informing these simulations included: 43 actions and 11 biodiversity groups systematically prioritised by stakeholders; biodiversity weights independently assigned to each action via a structured evaluation by 10 biodiversity experts; and the baseline distribution of biodiversity refuges on farms, reflecting their observed incidence in New Zealand's production landscape. Prioritisation across the demonstration industry halved the number of actions that would be required to deliver a 3-fold biodiversity gain. The greatest gains were made in the first 2 years when implementing all possible actions over 10 years. If every farm across the demonstration industry prioritised and implemented a quarter or more of possible actions, all would meet a biodiversity performance target of 10% improvement within 7 years. Adding biodiversity refuges is needed for 30% improvement in biodiversity for all farms within 10 years. The modelling encourages and informs investments by building confidence in the longer-term value of continuous farming improvements. The simulations give users confidence they are choosing the best options for their own circumstances, thus providing positive mental models for overcoming evidence complacency and incentivising behaviour changes crucial for delivering desired biodiversity outcomes. Evaluating other sustainability benefits and estimating costs of each biodiversity intervention are the logical next steps to encourage uptake and to fine-tune and optimise strategies for industry-wide biodiversity care and multifunctional agricultural using the simulation tools reported here.