Pathways to net-zero emissions from China's transportation industry: Considering alternative fuels

Abstract

In the context of the national ‘dual carbon’ strategy, expediting the green and low-carbon transformation has become a focal point across various industries. The challenge of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transportation sector is exceptionally formidable, given its heavy reliance on energy. Swift progress within this industry unavoidably entails heightened energy consumption, consequently exacerbating CO2 emissions within the sector. This article aims to identify an attainable, comprehensive pathway towards achieving net-zero emissions within the industry. The study reveals that strict control over the growth rate of the transportation industry's total output value and significant promotion of energy intensity decline can lead to a substantial 44% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, equivalent to approximately 2.17 Gt and 2.15 Gt of CO2eq. Successfully achieving net-zero emissions necessitates the replacement of fossil fuels with alternative transportation fuels in the range of 3.34 EJ to 15.22 EJ, accompanied by technological advancements to drive cost reductions. Additionally, considering non-CO2 radiation forcing, each scenario requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR) ranging from 0.17 Gt to 2.67 Gt for achieving net-zero emissions. This article comprehensively examines key factors including economy, energy, and technology, conducting an in-depth investigation into the viable pathway to achieve net-zero emissions within the industry. The findings presented herein offer valuable insights into facilitating the industry's low-carbon development and supporting the attainment of the national ‘dual carbon’ goal.